Gas Winter Outlook 2024-2025

Mirroring the outlook from 2023, the analysis shows that: 

• The French network has capacity to guarantee supply coverage for domestic consumption and exports to Europe, even in the event of cold snaps.
• This stability is supported by sustained imports from Norway, the Netherlands and Spain, LNG supplies to liquid natural gas terminals, rigorous stock management and the efficient use of gas at levels comparable to those seen last winter.

The Ecogaz scheme running since 2022 is doing its part for energy efficiency and keeping both residential and industrial consumers informed on any potential periods of network stress. 

Different simulations show that the gas system has the capacity to supply French consumers and meet the solidarity measure to help European neighbours with gas supply, however harsh the upcoming winter conditions turn out to be.
In the event of a cold or very cold winter, sustained supplies in natural gas will be needed at French LNG terminals and interconnectors with other European countries.

Simulations factor in supply flows, the fall in consumption observed in 2023, the consumption of gas-fired power plants, renewable gas production, and the high fill levels of storage sites (95% at 21/10/2024), comparable with previous winters to guarantee consumption coverage in the event of a cold winter or late-winter cold snaps. French production of biomethane is estimated at 5 TWh, equivalent to one nuclear power plant unit.

In the event of a late-winter cold snap when potential shortages could occur, the margin of security is relatively small, particulary should there be a high demand on stocks at the start of winter.

It is therefore crucial that market operators preserve stocks in the early winter period to cover any potential late-winter cold snap and sustain energy efficiency efforts in place. 
 

Since the ongoing energy crisis that began in winter 2021/22, the European gas system has managed to adapt to guarantee supply security even though Russian gas imports to Europe all sources combined (pipeline and LNG) have fallen by 70% since then.

Through winter 2023/24, France stepped up its contribution to European solidarity, reporting significant exports east, representing a net volume of 83 TWh to Belgium, Germany and Switzerland.

Twelve new entry points have been built in Europe since 2022 (including four to be commissioned by the end of 2024) thanks to the rapid development of floating liquid natural gas (FLNG) facilities. In 2023, Europe achieved a regasification capacity of just under 7 TWh/day. In 2024, this capacity is expected to rise by 13% compared to 2023.